While many studies have shown the correlation between global warming and regional weather and precipitation patterns, few have addressed the effects of these changes on crop yield. A newly published study provides information on how crop yields may be affected by regional extreme weather.
The study’s data is based on long-term air temperature and precipitation observations for different geographical areas across the state of Nebraska. Authors of the study include Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute (DWFI) Director of Research Christopher Neale, former DWFI Visiting Professor Carlos A. C. dos Santos, former DWFI Research Assistant Professor Mesfin Mekonnen, former DWFI Postdoctoral Research Associates Ivo Zution Goncalves and Babak Safa, DWFI Faculty Fellow Clinton Rowe and colleagues.
Researchers collected weather data from the last 40 years using 20 regionally-specific climate characteristics. They applied these factors of temperature and precipitation to what is already known about certain crops to predict if yields in Nebraska will be influenced.
Relevant takeaways include:
- There has been an increase in average minimum and maximum temperatures over the last four decades in Nebraska and a nighttime warming trend. It is known that high nighttime air temperature leads to higher plant respiration and plants maturing faster, both of which reduce crop yields.
- Few places in Nebraska showed a considerable increase in extreme precipitation events, with the exception being the westernmost part of the state.
- As maximum temperatures and daily differences between lows and highs (diurnal temperature ranges) increase, yields in non-irrigated corn and soybean fields decrease. Soybeans experience the most reduction in yields.
The results suggest that the number of days with a maximum temperature higher than 25 °C (77 °F), as well as higher temperatures in general and a wider range of temperatures throughout the day can negatively impact rainfed crop production in Nebraska. “This study shows that crop production in Nebraska may be influenced by temperature and precipitation extremes,” said Neale.
The study suggests Nebraska can prepare for and adapt to these more frequent and intense extremes by selecting crops and varieties that are more resistant to temperature change and identifying proper planting and harvesting time through weather forecasting.
